African press review 3 May 2017

Does the health of President Muhammadu Buhari pose a threat to Nigeria's political survival? Can Jacob Zuma survive without the support of the Confederation of South African Trade Unions? And, who is killing Tanzanian police officers?

Intrigues in high places threaten Nigeria’s survival.

That's the main story on the political pages of the Guardian this morning.

The Lagos-based paper says Monday’s meeting between generals Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida and Abdusalaam Abubakar, three former heads of state, ostensibly to discuss the health of current President Muhammadu Buhari, shows the level of anxiety the issue of the president's health has generated.

The three generals who, at one point or the other since 1976, have been charting Nigeria’s course for ill or for good, are recognised as the architects of the current democracy.

Underlining the importance of the May Day meeting at Babangida’s mansion in Minna, the capital of Niger State, is the fact the last time the trio met was to moderate the change from military to democratic rule in 1999.

No communiqué was issued at the end of the two-hour meeting held behind closed doors. But inside sources say the three generals expressed concerns about the failing health of Buhari and discussed ways of averting any political crisis that could result.

Sources also disclosed that the generals agreed to use their contacts and influence to prevent a repeat of the situation during the regime of late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua when, despite a clear constitutional provision, a “principle of necessity” was adopted to allow the then vice-president Goodluck Jonathan emerge as the acting president after Yar’Adua became clearly incapacitated.

Does Zuma need Cosatu?

Given that South African president Jacob Zuma was booed and prevented from making a speech at an International Workers’ Day event organised by the Confederation of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) in Bloemfontein on Monday, the Johannesburg-based financial paper BusinessDay devotes space to the question of how influential the union federation is in deciding who will be the next ANC leader.

Zuma's presence in Bloemfontein came as a surprise since Cosatu and the South African Communist Party (SACP) specifically told the ANC that Zuma would not be welcome to speak at the event.

Political analyst Ebrahim Fakir says it is difficult to gauge the effect Cosatu members might have on the ANC elective conference, which will choose the ruling party's next leader, in December.

This is because there is no audit of Cosatu members who are also members of the ANC and who participate in the branches of the party.

Another political analyst, Dumisani Hlophe, emphasises that Cosatu members who also hol ANC cards are first and foremost party members.

He says the factions in the ANC are beginning to be duplicated within Cosatu and, to a lesser degree, within the SACP.

Yet another analyst points out that Cosatu has no voting block at ANC conferences but adds the union group will be lobbying ANC members in the branches to influence the choice of candidates. Cosatu will not directly influence the outcome.

Business confidence slumps in South Africa

Meanwhile, business confidence in South Africa is going down the gurgler.

A separate story in BusinessDay says President Zuma’s recent cabinet reshuffle and the credit-rating downgrades that followed have resulted in a significant knock to business confidence.

The purchasing managers’ index contracted in April after three successive months of growth to record the weakest reading in 15 months and the sharpest fall since 2011.

What motivates police murders in Tanzania?

Who is killing police officers in Tanzania? That question appears on the front page of regional daily the East African.

The paper notes that 30 police officers have been killed, along with 16 civilians, and 60 firearms lost, all in a period of two years.

These are the disturbing statistics from an independent study by the Legal and Human Rights Centre that are at the centre of differing interpretations by the Tanzanian security forces and civil society over the intent of the group behind it all.

While the police attribute the killings to organised crime, intelligence sources and human-rights watchers say the killers are Islamic terrorists.