Outsiders on the rise ahead of Socialist primaries

A French socialist outsider who wants to legalise cannabis and introduce a universal basic income of 750 euros is gaining ground in the left-wing presidential primaries, and looks to be a serious contender ahead of Sunday’s first round vote.

Former French ministers and candidates Arnaud Montebourg (L) and Benoit Hamon attend the second prime-time televised debate for the French left's presidential primaries in Paris, France, January 15, 2017. REUTERS/Bertrand Guay/Pool

Socialist lawmaker Benoit Hamon, an admirer of US left-wing firebrand Bernie Sanders, has long been considered the “third man” in the primaries to choose a presidential candidate from the group of left wing parties.

He’s up against former Socialist prime minister Manuel Valls, whom polls predict will come first in Sunday’s first round of the primaries, in which any French citizen can vote.

And until this week, surveys predicted centrist Arnaud Montebourg would take second place.

However, in the same way that conservative candidate François Fillon surged from a distant third place ahead of November’s right-wing primaries, Hamon has shaken-up the left-wing primaries to steal an eleventh-hour lead on Montebourg.

Hamon on the rise

Meanwhile, a BVA poll published this week saw former education minister Hamon securing 27 percent in the first round, behind Valls’s 34 percent and ahead of Montebourg on 26 percent. Just a month ago, Hamon was polling at just 10 percent.

Things will likely get rather more interesting -- and less predictable -- in the second round (if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote). The same poll gives both Hamon and Montebourg 52% and Valls’s 48%.

It has been a meteoric rise for Hamon, who was relatively unknown until campaigning began in earnest, who has caught the attention of French voters with his bold policies.

Macron as a contender

However, centrist Emmanuel Macron, who quit the government of Socialist President Francois Hollande in August, to run as an independent is also making progress.

Pollsters now tip him as a serious candidate, bookies have slashed their odds for victory, and regular crowds of thousands are testament to his pulling power.

"From around December, we started thinking that it's a possibility we might win," a senior aide said on condition of anonymity.

For fans he's a fresh face in a fossilised political system, a reformer with a social conscience, an ex-banker who understands both business and the "banlieues" -- France's gritty multi-ethnic suburbs.

His critics see a shallow sensation fuelled by media hype, or an elitist snob who has never been elected and is backed by chief executives.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has called him the "candidate of the banks."