France tipped for warmest New Year's Eve in history

As 2022 now looks certain to claim a respectable place among the warmest years ever recorded in mainland France, 31 December is likely to boost the national average, according to weather forecasters.

A warm winter day in the southern French city of Nice. © AFP - Valéry Hache

"We will most certainly have the mildest 31 December since measurements began in 1947," say sweating forecasters at the national weather service, Météo France.

The average temperature for the whole country could exceed 8 degrees Celsius. That means 23 degrees Celsius in Dax in the south-west, and 16 degrees Celsius in Paris.

In the past 75 years, the recorded temperature on New Year's Day has exceeded a national average of 8 degrees Celsius on only three occasions.

The Christmas period was also unusually mild this year, with the average temperature on 24 and 25 December being the highest ever recorded. 

And the first few days of January 2023 are expected to remain particularly mild.

#NouvelAn Cette Saint-Sylvestre devrait être la plus douce jamais observée à l’échelle du pays depuis 1947 venant clôturer de façon symbolique, une année 2022 la plus chaude jamais enregistrée en France.

🔗https://t.co/XG9Pk1kknj pic.twitter.com/sFDKrIXXQj

— Météo-France (@meteofrance) December 29, 2022

Climate change, linked to human activities and in particular the burning of fossil fuels, has already caused global warming of 1.2°C. 

As a result of this phenomenon, which affects all regions of the globe, the subtropical air arriving in France is much warmer than it was thirty or fifty years ago. 

Mild weather in eastern Europe

Over the next few days, the whole of Europe is likely to be affected by this winter warmth and even higher temperatures than in France could be recorded in Germany, Poland or the Baltic States.

Alors que nous pourrions connaître la fin d'année la plus douce depuis 1947, de nombreux pays en #Europe voient aussi leurs températures maximales flirter avec les records. Voici ce qui vous attend si vous partez fêter la St-Sylvestre au-delà de nos frontières. pic.twitter.com/UNtPy0cq3K

— La Chaîne Météo (@lachainemeteo) December 29, 2022

Although less difficult for people to bear than heatwaves, exceptionally mild winter periods have many negative consequences, particularly for endangered species and ecosystems.

On the economic level, high temperatures reduce heating bills but penalise other sectors, such as the seasonal ski industry. 

The national union representing ski lift operators and resorts announced on Tuesday that half of French ski slopes are closed due to a lack of snow.

• Half of France's ski slopes closed by warm weather and rain
• Weather forecasters predict an unusually warm European winter

While the effects of global warming are increasingly visible, global emissions of CO₂, the main greenhouse gas, are expected to continue to rise in 2022. 

In France, data show that the country hardly reduced its emissions during the first nine months of the year, mainly because of the shutdown of many nuclear reactors for maintenance, which led to record consumption of fossil gas.

The transport sector, the largest emitter of CO₂, also continues to see an increase in emissions.