Macron victory may alter course of war in Ukraine but there are problems to overcome
Macron winning the French elections means that EU countries and NATO will maintain their united front vis-a-vis Russia. Had Marine Le Pen, known for her sympathies for the Russian leader, won this might not have been the case.
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During her presidential campaign, Marine Le Pen had EU and NATO leaders on edge after stating her intention to pull Paris out of the alliance's military command.
They were also concerns about her approach to the EU, which would have meant an increasing role of the nation-state, something which runs counter to the EU's founding principles.
Macron, however is a strong supporter of increased EU integration and has made a case for a common defence strategy, something he started promoting vigourously after he was elected president for the first time in 2017.
According to a 2017 study by the think-tank Carnegie Europe, "Macron’s main military objective is to enable Europeans to act autonomously when needed, complementing NATO’s territorial defence role with a European capacity to intervene abroad".
This would build on existing initiatives like the European Defence Fund and Permanent Structured Cooperation.
Russia's look at Macron's victory
Meanwhile in Russia, analyst Andrey Kudryavtsev, a senior researcher at IMEMO, a think tank affiliated with Russia's Foreign Ministry, was quoted by Izvestia news agency as saying that Macron's victory "means that France's foreign policy will be about the same as it has been for the previous five years".
He pointed out that his main priority is the "strategic autonomy and strengthening of the European Union" so that the EU "becomes one of the key centres of the world system."
Putin himself on Monday sent Macron a message to congratulate him with his re-election, Russian news agencies reported, citing the Kremlin.
"I sincerely wish you success in your activities, as well as good health and well-being," he was quoted as saying.
A stronger Europe
During his first tenure as president, which coincided with US President Donald Trump's NATO-sceptical presidency, Macron was often critical of the trans-Atlantic alliance, even going so far as to call it "brain dead" during an interview in 2019.
But Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and the more NATO-friendly approach of Trump's successor, Joe Biden, changed everything.
“The war launched by [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin brings a clarification, and creates at our borders and on our European soil an unusual threat which gives a strategic clarification to NATO,” the French President said in during a press conference last March.
At the same time, he reinforced the idea that Europe should strengthen its own defences.
"I continue to think that we need to rebuild a new European order of security. The war today in Ukraine makes it even more indispensable," he said.
Meanwhile, Macron was one of the rare EU leaders who went on talking to Putin, sometimes for hours at a time.
During his last live interview before the elections Macron warned radio station FranceInter against choosing a military path against Russia, saying that a military solution “means that we decide to escalate the conflict,” which could start “a new world war.”
He said that France and Germany had decided not to directly interfere in the war, but did send military equipment to Kyiv.
Macron also said he does “not rule out at all” talking with the Russian president.
Stopping dialogue with Putin, Macron explained, would yield the initiative for negotiations to others like “Turkish president [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] or Chinese president [Xi Jinping].”
Economic fallout
On the economic front, France - and its fellow EU member states - are starting to feel the fallout of the war. Food prices are up, edible oil is disappearing from supermarkets.
"We are already see rising food prices. Not only because of Ukraine, but also because of Russia," Vasili Astrov, senior economist of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies told RFI.
"The disruptions in supply of Russian grain are not so much because of the war, but because of the export embargo which has been enacted in Russia in order to prevent the rise in domestic prices.
It means people will have to pay more for food and energy and there will be less money to be spent on anything else.
PODCAST: Vasili Astrov - Senior Economist Vienna Institute talking about the economic impact of the war on Ukraine, the EU and Russia.
"In addition to rising food prices, we see rising energy prices and that will affect economic growth throughout EU, because it means people will have to pay more for food and energy and there will be less money to be spent on anything else.
"There is talk about a potential new version of a Marshal Plan for Ukraine, a massive assistance package by the US and the EU, which would help reconstruct areas affected by the war," which newly elected French president Macron will be more likely to support, together with his German counterpart Olaf Scholz.
"That would be the only feasible scenario for Ukraine and the only way it could really pull itself out of the current economic crisis, because Ukraine doesn't have many fiscal resources of its own.
But setting up an effective Marshall Plan takes time, and will be only a short-term solution, says Astrov. Crucial for rebuilding Ukraine will be the return of investment.
But return of private investors will take even more time, he thinks. On average, he says, countries emerging from a war have to wait some "five years before private investors return."
"GDP level of Portugal"
Russia won't be able to count on any Western help. While not all foreign companies got out of Russia (French supermarket giant Auchan remained loyal to its Russian customers for one), the country may be in dire straits for years to come.
Most foreign companies "basically closed down their operations" in Russia, almost all western car manufacturers have withdrawn, while it is "clear that the climate for foreign investment will remain toxic," making it increasingly difficult for Moscow to gain access to advanced technology.
Russia will still be able to avoid complete isolation because there will be "more economic cooperation with China" and other BRICS countries such as Brazil and India, as well as Indonesia.
However, this will never be "fully substitute the disruption of economic links with the West," leaving it economically far behind, even below the GDP level of Portugal.
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